Heavy Rain Event Forecasted for Texarkana
Heavy rains are expected in the Ark-La-Tex thru this weekend, with 6 to 8 inches possible in the Texarkana area. The heaviest of the rains are expected in two waves with the first dropping into the area Thursday night.
This is from an email from the National Weather Service in Shreveport,
Rainfall: The intial thinking is 1 to 3 inches of rain will occur with this initial cold front across most areas. Some locations could see an isolated higher amount. This cold front will push south of the region during the day on Friday and giving the region a bit of a break with only light rainfall amounts expected late Friday/Friday night through Saturday AM
Severe Weather: The northwest half of the region is in a Slight Risk for severe weather which will primarily occur during the late afternoon and evening hours Thursday along/ahead of the front. Damaging Winds, Hail, and possibly an isolated tornado will be possible however wind shear is forecast to be on the low end for tornadoes…but it is still not negligible.
The front begins working back north as another piece of upper level energy moves closer and the rains move in from south to north across the region. The front is forecast to stall in to SW to NE fasion across our warning area near a Lufkin to Marshall to Hope AR line. And it is the location of this front which will determine where some of the heaviest storm total rains occur. Another 1 to 2 inches will be possible on Saturday..especially in Deep East TX/West Central LA.
The main piece of upper level energy will kick out during the day Sunday and we are expecting rainfall to pick up in intensity. Some areas could see as much as 2-4 inches overnight Saturday night through midday Sunday.
- Flooding/Flash Flooding will be the primary concern…especially where storms are going to train across the same areas.
- The River Forecast Centers have informed us that river flooding at this point would primarily be minor flooding. There are a few locations in the Sulphur River basin which could reach moderate flooding based on “Current” rainfall forecasts.
- Severe weather threat, for now, is limited to Thu/Thu PM along and ahead of the cold front as it sags south today (Thursday)…with damaging winds, hail and a very isolated tornado threat possible.